Governing by Lying: On the Death Cards of Drought, Deceit & Delinquency

A pupil drinks muddy water in Baringo.
Photo: Courtesy

“Everyone is entitled to his opinion, but not to his own facts.” – Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Kenya’s current administration is without doubt an archetype of incompetence and delinquency based on the high levels of misgovernance witnessed over the last six years.

A legendary distinction of the Jubilee administration in comparison with the country’s past administrations is governing not just by lying, but by repeatedly doing so even when Kenyans are dying and suffering because of drought.

In an assemblage of what may be termed as “a grand presentation and sanctification of alternative, erroneous and disturbing facts”, the administration’s purported “machinists” denied any deaths resulting from drought that has largely affected Turkana and Baringo counties as well as counties in the Northern Frontier region.

Contrary to the “facts” presented by the “machinists”, there is undeniable evidence that Kenyans are dying because of the ravaging effects of drought.

Development Agenda

Featured twice on Jubilee’s agenda for the much touted but hardly evident development is creation of a food secure state; first through its manifesto, “Agenda for Kenya 2013-2017” harmonized with the second medium-term plan (2013-2017) of Vision 2030; and secondly, through its 2017 manifesto integrated with the third medium-term plan (2018-2022) commonly known as the “Big Four Agenda.”

A vague and totally empty campaign promise that now offers comic relief to politically conscious citizens regards the expected miraculous productivity of the Galana-Kulalu Food Security Project, the regime’s much acclaimed signature programme.

While launching Jubilee Party’s election manifesto in 2017, its deputy party leader William Ruto, in a utopic frenzy, remarked that the Galana-Kulalu Food Security Project would produce 30,000 bags of maize each month beginning July 2018. This remains a politically fat and equally irrelevant statement.

The Galana-Kulalu Food Security Project is one of the regime’s cash cow, a soon-to-be white elephant. A recent article revealed the irrigation project as Jubilee’s equivalent of the infamous Goldenberg Scandal, a fact confirmed by an unnamed wheeler-dealer of the administration.

Unsurprisingly, the irrigation project has been dogged by corruption. The Auditor General has raised fundamental questions about the usage of finances allocated to the project. Green Arava, an Israeli firm contracted to develop a model farm at the irrigation scheme, threatened to abandon its operations this year after not being paid as per the contractual agreement.

Additionally, the regime’s intention to construct dams with the aim of enhancing food production in regions perennially affected by drought and famine has turned out to be a scandalous affair. Ridiculously and unintelligently, the Cabinet Secretary in charge of Agriculture claims that thirty one dams will be constructed before the onset of the long rains. Are Kenyans – politically conscious Kenyans – that stupid to be lied to?

Deceitful PR: Of Food Relief Pilgrimages

To be a gallant politician one must be a master opportunist, a firm believer in propaganda and a “saviour” of the poor, needy and desperate masses.

Close to six decades since the British imperialists ceded political power to Kenyans, ordinary folks are still economically impoverished because of the invisible hand of the tiny elite that has strangulated the country’s economy by plundering resources.

The politico-economic tyranny occasioned by the tiny elite has dominated Kenya’s post-colonial history, a true indication of lack of economic and political independence for ordinary Kenyans. The success of this tiny elite is through the creation of a kleptocratic political monopoly that oversupplies short-term solutions and undersupplies long-term solutions.

We’ve got to remember that the yearly food relief pilgrimages are consequences of short-termism fashioned by Kenya’s tyrannical tiny elite.

Such short-termism keeps the masses in a perpetual state of dependence on the tiny elite and acts as fodder for gaining political capital. Acts of benevolence especially by politicians in helping desperate and poor citizens qualify as deceitful public relations exercises, and such is the case with the food relief distribution activities in the affected counties.

Voting & Political ‘Misleadership’

A country’s economic well-being or lack thereof depends on the nature of its political leadership. But the nature of the political leadership is an outcome of the voting patterns of the majority, and a reflection of the thought processes of a significant number of citizens.

High affinity to short-term solutions meant to address perennial challenges such as drought and famine would be avoidable only if the republic’s politics was based on relevant political ideologies. But as Bryan Caplan notes in his book, The Myth of the Rational Voter, “in real-world political settings, the price of ideological loyalty is close to zero…” No wonder ideologically deficient politics is the order of the day in Kenya.

A handful of Jubilee administration supporters who voted twice in 2017 to endorse the regime’s corruption and misgovernance have suddenly turned into its critics. This is pretence and ignorance.

In fact, Caplan further notes in his book that “voter ignorance opens the door to severe government failure”, and Kenya would have avoided such a failed government if only voters made right decisions at the ballot by not ignoring the terrible record of most of the politicians. 

County governments especially in the regions affected by drought need to prioritize agriculture which is a devolved function.

The only way forward for Kenya to avoid embarrassing situations like deaths resulting from drought, and food relief pilgrimages is to collectively root out the corrupt, tyrannical and imperialistic tiny elite that promotes state capture hence political ‘misleadership.’ Is this possible? Only if the misled significant majority embraces progressive thinking.

Of the Chinese Fish, Imbalanced Trade, Debt & Market Captivity

“Debt is a cleverly managed reconquest of Africa.” – Thomas Sankara.

“He who feeds you, controls you.” – Thomas Sankara.

While acknowledging the importance of borrowing as a measure aimed at financing key projects and economic activities for a country, the primary concern remains the sustainability of debt, and how debt financing affects the overall economic performance.

With a number of debt analysts, for instance the Jubilee Debt Campaign, pointing out to an impending debt crisis for African countries, it would be fundamental to first consider the politics and economics of external debt, and secondly, the conditionalities attached to it.

In regards to the politics and economics of external debt, the late Thomas Sankara aptly summarizes it in terms of the reconquest of Africa. Essentially, loans advanced by various entities are repaid with interest, and this generates income for the creditors. As such, more Chinese debt for the African countries means more income for China, a similar case with the World Bank and other creditors.

Politically, geopolitical ambitions fuel the need for the formation and adoption of the so-called mutual trading partnerships. Elementally, such partnerships largely benefit the foreign entities that issue out loans to the developing economies.

Africa is a card shuffled by foreigners for ages resulting in dehumanizing statements such as “whoever controls Africa controls the world.” From the Arab slave trade, the Trans-Atlantic trade, colonialism and currently the neo-colonialism era, foreigners dictate the pace of Africa’s game at the global stage.

Part of the foreigners’ games of strategy include foreign aid whose failures override its successes. Advancing foreign aid in form of loans and grants comes attached with conditionalities. The World Bank and the Western states especially in the 1980s and 90s often offered foreign aid with calls for adoption of democratic institutions and market-oriented economic policies. This changed following China’s increased presence in Africa with African countries preferring to partner with the Dragon on the account of issuing loans without conditionalities.

The perception that the Chinese loans come with no conditionalities is a lie! It is commonsense economics that there is no free lunch and there must be a trade-off between cooperating entities. Therefore, for China, issuing loans to African countries is not enough. Access to African markets is a condition inherently pegged on the Chinese loans.

Recently, Uhuru Kenyatta banned the importation of fish from China arguing that the local fish market was on a free-fall. In response to the supposed ban, China, through her ambassador to Kenya Li Xuhang termed it as a trade war while threatening to impose trade sanctions including cutting funding for the economically unviable standard gauge railway line. However, the threats by the Dragon never took effect following the suspension of the ban by the Kenyan government.

Back to the moral sentiments of the indefatigable Thomas Sankara, whoever feeds you controls you. Signing of economic partnerships between African countries and foreign entities involves so many underhand deals that are never disclosed to the public. Such covert deals, in the case of China, seek to create markets for the Chinese goods, and employment for the Chinese people. The government’s suspension of the ban on Chinese fish and China’s threats exemplify the Sankarist view on foreign aid, and dispel the notion that China’s loans are free from conditionalities.

Ordinarily, trade relationships between two countries need to be a win-win affair but the so-called economic partnerships propagated by China can best be classified as highly parasitic and imbalanced.

Take a look at the trade statistics between Kenya and China and notice how it is highly imbalanced. According to the July-September 2018 issue of the Policy Monitor magazine published by the Kenya Institute of Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA), Kenya imported Chinese goods worth Kshs.390 billion in 2017 and exported commodities worth Kshs.9.9 billion to China in the same year.

An anachronistic plan hatched by China in 2016 to lure the East African Community member states to signing a free trade agreement with her indicates an aggressive ambition by the Asian nation to capture and control the markets of the region.

Luckily, the Kenyan government rejected the trade arrangement which would have led to the death of the Kenyan industries especially the medium and small microenterprises. In as much as this move may be termed as protectionist, it is necessary that the Kenyan government adopt highly protectionist policies to promote the growth and development of the manufacturing sector, key in creating a high number of employment opportunities.  

Free trade favors advanced economies and leaves the poor, developing countries worse off. China’s intentions to convince the East African Community member states to sign the free trade agreement ignores the global economic history of development. China and the Asian Tigers realized faster economic growth and development on the basis of policies protecting the infant industries, the same case with the now classified developed economies like the USA, Germany, Britain and others.

Going back to the reaction by the Chinese ambassador to Kenya, he bluffed that Kenya’s ban on imported Chinese fish was against “the principle of free trade, the rule of law, adherence to bilateral agreements and the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO).” All these aforementioned trade doctrines will never work in favor of developing countries including Kenya because of their skewed nature working to the advantage of the advanced economies.

Fast forward, was the ban on the imported Chinese fish doomed to fail? Possibly yes. In June this year, the not-so-competent Cabinet Secretary in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture, Mwangi Kiunjuri, came to the defense of the importation of the Chinese fish stating that the supply in the local market never met the demand. Quite logical.

But there are fundamental issues which if addressed would ward off the importation of fish from China. The first issue is to incentivize the production of fish especially in geographical areas where fishing is one of the main economic activities. Additionally, fish farming has to be encouraged but this should be among communities familiar with fishing.

As matter-of-factly, the Kshs.60 million fish processing factory built in Nyeri County in 2015, following the introduction of fish farming in the region as part of the 2009/2010 Economic Stimulus Programme (ESP), is now considered to be a white elephant with its location among a community not accustomed to eating fish heavily influencing its collapse.

Lack of initiative by the Jubilee administration to address the root cause of the increased importation of fish from China is deliberate. Kenya is China’s captive market and with the Chinese loans and/or debts, the Mandarins will dictate what they want in exchange for their financial and technical assistance.

Failure of Kenya and other African countries to learn from history is the bane for their economic floundering. Western powers considered African countries to be captive markets during the colonial era and thereafter in the post-colonial period. The same script is being played by China; on advancing ‘cheap’ loans and controlling the markets. This is neo-colonialism and lack of economic independence.

Therefore, increase in the importation of Chinese fish has got more to do with Kenya being a captive market as a consequence of borrowing finances from China than the purported high demand and lower supply in the local fish market.

On Kenya’s Oligarchy, Twisted Democracy & Dashed Hopes of the Third Liberation

Kenyans queuing to vote in the 2017 elections
Photo Courtesy: CNN 

A year after Kenyans took to the polls, a number of political events have occurred, and have shaped the country’s political landscape in some respects.

From nullification of the outcome of the presidential election, the repeat presidential election boycotted by Raila Odinga, the historical swearing-in of Odinga as the people’s president, the muzzling of dissenting voices by the administration of the day to the unexpected handshake, it’s been a political melodrama of sorts.

Reflecting on the pre-election and post-election happenings, Kenya comes out as a flourishing oligarchy and a failing democracy, a twisted one for that matter.

Fundamentally, a democracy is a political system characterized by a free, fair and credible electoral process. On the other hand, the electoral process in an oligarchy comes out as fraudulent, fake and crooked.

Basing on the credibility of the electoral process in the lead up to the 2018 general elections, it is correct to assert that Kenya’s trajectory towards a vibrant democracy is twisted.

Historically, Kenya’s political system, and extensively the economic system, only benefit few individuals who control the means of production and the balance of power. This is an explicit manifestation of an oligarchy.

Kenya’s pre-supposed democratic tendencies, to say the least, are far-fetched and illusionary. Politically and economically, the majority, whom democracy accords the right to call the shots, have never had their way in the country with the exception of the formation of the NARC administration and the institutionalization of the current constitutional dispensation.

An honest rumination in view of Kenya’s political and electoral malfeasance wouldn’t take place without weighty consideration of the compromised Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), the role and influence of the Western states – the so-called masters and defenders of democratic ideals, the excessively irrational average voter, the highly deceptive public relations (PR) and political consultancy firms, and the Third Liberation whose conceptualization is fast waning.

Basically, an institution is as good or bad as the people charged with the mandate to steer it. From the family – the basic unit of social organization, a school, an organization, a football team and a government, competence is a tenet necessary for the success or failure of an entity.

In the run up to the 2018 general elections IEBC’s senior officers proved to be partisan and compromised thus jeopardizing the independence of the electoral body.

Independence of an electoral body is the foremost step in having a free, fair and credible electoral process. The independence of the IEBC is interfered with right from the appointments of the commissioners and other senior officers of the country’s electoral body.

The embattled chair of IEBC Wafula Chebukati has proven to be quite incompetent but this is not a surprise anyway given his subpar performance while being vetted by Parliament for the hot seat. He was not the best out of the other candidates and being appointed to chair the IEBC fixed him in a corner.

Other commissioners were clearly partisan and their political intentions well known. We can’t have a clean electoral process with such poisoned minds running an exercise that determines the fate of Kenyans economically, socially and politically.

Western states – the masters of impunity and double-standards – supported a corrupt regime out of geo-political and geo-economic interests. Led by the American government, they pronounced the legitimacy of an administration which they were not in favour of in 2013.

Who offers support and confers legitimacy to a regime whose rogue police officers killed and injured innocent Kenyans including harmless children?

Setting the record straight, political correctness is the language preferred by the governments of the Western states. Kenya’s case and other immoral governments across Africa being cheered on by the West is largely informed by their (Western states) intentions to counter China’s influence on the continent.

If the likes of the American, British, French and other Western governments are champions and crusaders of democracy, then it would make sense if they were not funding undemocratic regimes and toppling legitimate governments around the world.

As matter-of-factly, Western governments have never condemned the rogue and undemocratic regime in Saudi Arabia. They wreaked havoc in Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, Syria and other nations but only as a divide and rule scheme driven by paranoia and economic interests.

Apart from the political relief offered by the West, the deception and destruction caused by the global political consultancy firms such as Cambridge Analytica should never be forgotten going forward.

The political consultancy firms are in pursuit of profits, economic capital and economic power as the political parties and formations are hell-bent in pursuit of political capital and political power. But to what extent is the price to be paid for the trade-off between business profits and political power?

Apparently, the price is costly and takes the form of a disintegrated country. These firms pursue their profits by optimizing on the structural weaknesses of a country.

For instance, in Kenya, Cambridge Analytica which was responsible for running the Jubilee Party’s political campaign ostensibly capitalized on the ethnic fault lines that are highly visible in the Kenyan society.

So far no serious step has been made in banning such firms from operating in Kenya especially in running political campaigns. This country is a joke. Pressure from various entities eventually forced Cambridge Analytica to shut down its operations.

In South Africa, PR firm Bell Pottinger, known to work for despots, was chased from the country after running racially charged campaigns especially on economic reform and the prevalent socio-economic inequalities in the country.

But unlike in Kenya where the public never protested about Cambridge Analytica’s divisive campaign, the publics in Britain and South Africa were vocal on the firms’ PR gimmicks.

Involvement of these firms in Kenya’s political space with the intention of driving narratives that are misleading and dangerous casts the country as a twisted democracy.

Embers of the Third Liberation that flamed up following the flawed electoral process flickered out as soon as the ‘handshake’ between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta came to the fore.

Doubts have been cast on the supposed Building Bridges Initiative and yours truly is among the doubters. Judging from Kenya’s political history the ‘handshake’ is as good as any other political deal and its abandonment would not be a surprise.

Political (electoral) justice and economic justice should be the key drivers of the Third Liberation. But with political interests taking centre stage the hopes for a new Kenya are dashed.

Failure to address injustices committed in recent times and long before that will not actualize building bridges on the social, political and economic issues that divide Kenyans. Ignoring the implementation of the recommendations put forth by the Truth Justice and Reconciliation Commission (TJRC) only sets the country on a path for intensified calls for secession, massive socioeconomic inequality and electoral skullduggery in the near future.

In view of the aforementioned weighty issues, where does the Kenyan public stand? There is no hope for a better Kenya considering the dubious electoral and political decisions made by majority of members of the public.

Can the Kenyan public dislodge the oligarchs that have patronized the country’s politics and economy since the dawn of independence? This is a question of fundamental importance. But with a significant number of Kenyans voting in an unintelligent fashion and being unapologetic about their ethnic political ideologies there is no hope of Kenya transitioning to a nation.

Kenya has never been a nation. All the episodic moments of nationhood – independence, the Second Liberation, dethronement of the rogue and despotic KANU regime and promulgation of the current Constitution – involved elements of disenchantment with individuals at the centre of the government preferring to subscribe to the ideals of an oligarchy.

Let’s not pretend to pursue national unity in the spirit of the ‘handshake’ and the doctrine of accepting and moving on while escaping from addressing the country’s problems. That is not how a nation is built.

Of Whales, Sharks, the Big Fish & the Small Fish: On Kenya’s State of Corruption

Image: Courtesy. 

The same administration, the same storyline, the same state of affairs! That is the Jubilee administration for you folks! The recent revelations of the grand looting at the National Youth Service (NYS), and at the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) among other scams are a reminder of the failures and incompetence of the Jubilee administration.

I’m not engaging in a kind of a guns-blazing-no-holds-barred attack against the purported government of the majority, whose legitimacy is a knife-edge question, but undertaking an almost saintly act of expressing my disenchantment regarding the theft of public funds and immorality at the heart of government institutions.

It is immoral to embezzle resources that belong to the public. For the last five years, there is no doubt whatsoever that the Jubilee administration has presided over world class corruption and unrivalled immorality.

Recently, the Principal Secretary of the Interior Ministry, Karanja Kibicho, admitted that in the last five years corruption has gone up by 240%. One wonders how such public theft occurs while no individuals can be held accountable.

Normally, an incident of theft requires an agent before it is sanctioned and in due course materializes. This raises a fundamental concern in regards to why perpetrators of these scams especially under the Jubilee administration are yet to be jailed. Does it mean that corruption involving government agencies involves faceless individuals?

Kenya, under the rule of the Jubilee administration is a total joke, and as a matter of fact it can hardly be thought of as a country let alone a nation. And to set the record straight, Kenya cannot be thought of as a nation.

In fact, Kenya has only flirted with the state of nationhood thrice: the first time at the dawn of independence; the second time in 2002/2003 when NARC took over; and in 2010 following the promulgation of the current constitution.

Going by the political definition of the term ‘country’, Kenya does not qualify as one because of the immorality sanctioned by government officers in the form of plundering resources. Thus, Kenya is a den of corruption and a haven to the corrupt. This is the major reason why the proceeds from the economy only benefit a few individuals and not the majority.

Yes to Vice, No to Virtue

Profiting from vice is the order of the day in Kenya and this is an indication of a society characterized by systemic failure. The high affinity to vice than virtue in Kenya is not just a black spot for the public sector as the private sector is equally corrupt.

From the so-called whales, sharks, the big fish to the small fish of the rungs of the Kenyan society, the vice of corruption rules; its tentacles are widely spread and the culture is deeply entrenched.

Corruption has evolved over the years and it has become a national culture. Even with a constitution that lays a lot of emphasis on integrity, efforts to de-institutionalize the culture of corruption have proven to be futile.

It is nonsensical to have a government that is dominated with robber barons, individuals whose main motive is to speculate how they can orchestrate looting of public resources and from where.

We should not forget that by the term government reference is drawn to the national government and the county governments including their various arms. For instance, at the national level we have the Executive, Parliament and Judiciary. At the county level, we have the county assemblies and the county executives.

Sadly, these organs are dominated by people who are short of character, and in any case they would hardly meet the threshold of occupying state offices in countries or nations that are serious democracies and where integrity is highly regarded.

But, with a saintly reflection it is clear that citizens have given consent to the culture of corruption to permeate in the Republic. Look, majority of the citizens – those eligible to vote – are either compromised and vote for the wrong people or do not vote at all hence allowing the corrupt to be elected in office.

Kenya began its post-independence journey on a path that can be described as evil, highly immoral and certainly vicious. The Jomo Kenyatta-led administration was full of individuals whose desire was to amass wealth at the expense of fighting poverty, disease and ignorance – the main challenges that Kenyans faced at the dawn of independence.

Unfortunately, the three challenges still bedevil the Republic primarily due to corruption that has been handed down in ceremonious fashion from the Jomo Kenyatta regime, to the perpetually corrupt Moi regime, to the Kibaki administration and to the current rogue and fundamentally corrupt Jubilee administration.

Dealing with corruption in the Republic calls for not only upholding the rule of law but also advocating for a culture change in the various levels and classes of the Kenyan society. This means in essence that the social aspects need to be looked at to ensure that Kenyans begin to endear themselves to virtue and not vice.

For instance, the role of the family in the socialization and enculturation process of an individual needs to be revisited. Nowadays, the family is a neglected institution that no longer imparts the socially approved morals like integrity and being mindful of others’ welfare. The family has instead degenerated into an entity where greed is hatched, preached and practiced.

Additionally, the education system has failed to teach learners about morality and integrity. How do we expect students and pupils who steal exams to be the yardsticks of morality in the Republic? And hopelessly, teachers and parents facilitate the culture of cheating in examinations. Is the present and future of Kenya not doomed?

On the Price of Corruption

Corruption is a commodity and just like other valuable products, it has a price and a market determined by the forces of demand and supply.

Normally, the production of a commodity and distribution are determined by a set of incentives. Incentives motivate the producers to produce commodities and enable traders to engage in trading activities. For instance, the primary incentive for capitalists is to make profits.

Since corruption is a commodity, its value is attached to the various socio-economic classes that exist in Kenya with each class engaging in corruption activities it can easily afford. The rich – those with means – can easily afford to engage in corruption in the upper echelons of government. The poor – the have nots, the scum of the Kenyan society – and the hoi polloi can afford to pay for corruption that takes place at the lower levels of the Republic’s socio-economic and political strata.

The bottom line, however, is that each social and economic class can afford to pay for corruption depending on the socio-economic stratification, just like in a normal product market where the rich can afford purchasing luxurious commodities and the poor can afford buying low quality sometimes cheap counterfeit goods.

Thence, the price of corruption is too low in Kenya in that it can easily be afforded by majority of the citizens whether one is looting billions from state institutions or paying a fifty shilling bribe for easier access to public services.

A vicious fight against corruption in the Republic, therefore, requires that this vice be made unaffordable. In essence, this calls for the cost of engaging in corruption to be increased, and as a result eliminate the incentives that facilitate graft to take place.

In increasing the cost of engaging in corruption and subsequently its price, it implies that punitive measures such as death sentence should be experimented and eventually instituted.

Just like a typical economy with extractive institutions where inequality between the poor and the rich is massive - with the rich getting away with whatever economic benefit as the have nots hope for the better – the legal system in Kenya is rogue and unequal with the whales, the sharks and the big fish that engage in corruption going scot free as the small fish literally face the full force of the law. This is outright subversion of the rule of law.

As matter-of-factly, the Jubilee administration is busy engaging in mere publicity stunts of arresting the NYS scandal suspects and talking tough as usual while the politicians, and other wheeler-dealers in government circles who choreograph the looting are yet to be prosecuted.

What happened to the first NYS scandal investigations? The Executive, Parliament and the Judiciary owe the tax payers an explanation on this.

By the way, in the month of May 2018 a clerk at the Kibera Huduma Centre was sentenced to two years in jail and fined Kshs. 500,000 for taking a bribe of Kshs. 2,500. This clerk is a small fish. What about the big fish, the whales and the sharks of the NYS scandals, the NCPB looting, and other scams engineered under the watch of the Jubilee administration?

Ours is not a country; it is a den of thieves and a haven for the robber barons and the irredeemably corrupt.

The Political Economy of the South Sudan Conflict

A section of rebels in South Sudan.
Image: Courtesy. 

It is close to five years since civil war began in South Sudan with negotiations failing to broker a peace deal between the warring groups. The unending conflict that started in December 2013 has resulted in destitution with thousands murdered and millions displaced.

The Council on Foreign Relations estimates that 50,000 South Sudanese have died since December 2013 when the war began. The Human Rights Watch approximates that 2 million South Sudanese have been internally displaced due to the conflict, while a further 2 million have sought for refuge in the neighboring countries.

Of the 2 million refugees beyond the borders of South Sudan, 1 million are in Uganda. Of the 2 million people that are internally displaced, 230,000 are camping at various United Nations’ bases across the country.

As war ravages Africa’s youngest state, the country’s economy has collapsed. As highlighted by the African Development Bank, the economic growth of the South Sudanese economy is on a freefall with the country’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracting. For instance, the country’s GDP shrank by 5.3% in 2015, contracted by 13.1% in 2016 and it is estimated to have declined by 6.1% in 2017.

Additionally, the country’s inflation rate reveals the ebbing of the economy’s fortunes with the latest figures indicating that the rate of inflation is 161%.

Following the economic hardship experienced in South Sudan, President Salva Kiir recently fired the Governor of the Central Bank and his deputy over the failure to deal with inflation. This was a symptomatic gesture bearing in mind that the country’s sinking economy is only reacting to the volatile political situation, and the sacking of the two officials is a scapegoat of the structural challenges that bedevil South Sudan.

Structurally, the primary reason why the conflict in South Sudan will not be ending anytime soon regards the distribution of wealth and the proceeds generated from the wealth. Internally and externally, conflicting interests among various groups have stalled the peace process and in any case, these groups continue to fuel the civil strife.

Internally, the desire to amass wealth is driving more entities into the war. Recently, Paul Malong, a former chief of staff of the army formed a rebel movement with the intention of fighting against the current administration which he considers to have failed in regards to restoring peace in the country.

Each of the existing militia groups seeks to impose some form of territorial control over the regions which are considered to be highly endowed with natural resources. The corrupt nature of the Salva Kiir led administration prompted the onset of the crisis with his family members and cronies looting the country’s national wealth at the expense of the ordinary South Sudanese citizens.

Transparency International ranks South Sudan at position 179 out of 180 countries as per the 2017 Corruption Perception Index report. This implies that South Sudan is an excessively corrupt state.

The question of who controls what in view of the natural resources is fundamental in understanding the genesis and nature of the conflict. From the exploration of oil, to gold mining activities as well as poaching and trafficking of wildlife, few individuals have strategically positioned themselves to benefit from the country’s natural resources.

With the economy grounded, oil exploration activities seem to be on a lull. But illicit trading of fuel is vibrant in the country an act that occasioned President Salva Kiir to issue a stern warning to the illegal fuel traders in July 2017.

However, the warning by the incompetent president can be regarded as a sideshow if the information documented in the Sentry Report is factual. The Sentry Report, titled “Fueling Atrocities: Oil and War in South Sudan”, outlines how funds from the oil exploration activities are used to fund militia groups and in due course aggravate the conflict.

According to the report, several militia groups exist among the Dinka community (Salva Kiir’s ethnic group) and they are tasked with protecting the oil reserves, an act that has led them to be widely known as the “Oil Protection Force.” The report further highlights on how the government finances the activities of the militia groups allied to the government.

Externally, geopolitical and geoeconomic factors continue to exacerbate the conflict in South Sudan. Both regional and foreign states have a hand in the unending crisis. The scramble for the natural resources in South Sudan and the benefits derived from the war occasion a number of states to hatch strategies intended to prolong the war.

In as much as the USA is vocal in pushing for the South Sudanese president to restore peace mainly through the use of sanctions and other threats, it cannot be denied that the American government is also responsible for the chaos.

With hindsight, the USA government played a primary role in the creation of the South Sudanese state. In fact, as highlighted by the Foreign Policy magazine, George W. Bush prioritized the creation of South Sudan in his foreign policy agenda.

Historically, the USA has greatly been involved in countries that are rich in oil and South Sudan is not an exception. The USA has a penchant of creating chaos and instability in order to profit economically from natural resources in states perceived as fragile. With Chinese presence in South Sudan being visible, USA may be using the chaos as a counter-strategy of China’s commercial interests in the country.

It is on record that the USA government declared President Salva Kiir as “an unfit partner.” Later on speaking before the United Nations Security Council, US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley warned that “words are no longer sufficient” in regards to the ongoing civil war. Such sentiments are an indication of a gloomy situation perhaps involving the violent removal of Salva Kiir from power.

But the forceful removal of Salva Kiir as president will be recipe for more chaos and the state building process will be even harder than it is at the moment. History shows that USA’s violent interventions result in the formation of puppet governments working for the interest of USA rather than for the collective interest of the citizens.

Though China has actively intervened in the conflict contrary to the fundamental ideals of its hands-off foreign policy, it cannot be ruled out that Beijing supports the Kiir administration with weapons to fight the various rebel groups.

Furthermore, Ukraine was accused in May last year for supplying arms to the South Sudanese government. It cannot be ruled out at the moment that such a similar activity is going on.

Regionally, various states are responsible for the civil strife in South Sudan. For instance, Sudan has a hand in the chaos rocking the world’s youngest state. Before gaining independence, the south battled with the north for a record 22 years between 1983 and 2005 in what has come to be referred to as the Second Sudan Civil War.

Origin of the Second Sudan Civil War can be traced to the attempt by former Sudanese president, Gaafar Mohamed el-Nimeiri to create an Islamic state, a move which forced the southerners under the leadership of John Garang de Mabior to put up an armed struggle.

With the independence of the southerners, however, Khartoum’s nosiness in the affairs of Juba is a fundamental factor that has prolonged the conflict. This follows the disagreement between the north and the south over the oil-rich region of Abyei.

Abyei belongs to South Sudan but since it is endowed with a lot of oil, the north keeps preying on the oil with total disregard of the Abyei Protocol which required that the region holds a referendum to decide whether it belongs to the south or the north.

Currently, Khartoum continues to run the affairs of Abyei with President Omar al-Bashir declaring in February last year that the region was part of the north and ordered the residents to apply for identification documents as per the laws of Sudan.

Khartoum offers support, financially and militarily, to some of the rebel groups in South Sudan in order to prolong the conflict and in due course profit from the oil in Abyei.

Uganda’s interests in South Sudan play a major role in the conflict. Uganda is South Sudan’s largest trading partner with various Ugandan entities engaged in the trading of oil, agricultural produce like maize among other commodities. As reported in February last year, Uganda was set to import gold from South Sudan.

Military interventions of the Ugandan army serve to protect the interests of Kampala in South Sudan. Additionally, driven by the paranoia of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), President Yoweri Museveni finds a justification to stir the waters in South Sudan. The Ugandan government collectively supports the South Sudanese government and various militias so that Uganda can continue profiteering from the civil strife. Uganda is home to 1 million South Sudanese refugees and this means money from the West to the government and its cronies.

In January 2018, Adama Dieng, the U. N secretary general’s special adviser for the prevention of genocide, accused Kenya and Uganda of fueling the conflict by allowing weapons and ammunitions destined for South Sudan to pass through their territories.

The corrupt nature of the Kenyan and Ugandan governments is a precipitating factor for the shipment and transportation of large quantities of weapons and ammunitions to South Sudan.

Kenya and Uganda host a large number of South Sudanese nationals. Majority of the South Sudanese government officials and their families lead opulent lifestyles in Nairobi and Kampala. The rich government officials and their cronies as well as the wealthy individuals financing the militias profit from the civil war as the average and poor South Sudanese languish in destitution.

Resolving the conflict calls for setting up mechanisms to look into the distribution of the natural resources and/or wealth in the country. Until the question of “who profits from the natural resources” is effectively answered, chaos will continue rocking South Sudan.

This post was first published on The Africa Vigil.