On Kenya’s Oligarchy, Twisted Democracy & Dashed Hopes of the Third Liberation

Kenyans queuing to vote in the 2017 elections
Photo Courtesy: CNN 

A year after Kenyans took to the polls, a number of political events have occurred, and have shaped the country’s political landscape in some respects.

From nullification of the outcome of the presidential election, the repeat presidential election boycotted by Raila Odinga, the historical swearing-in of Odinga as the people’s president, the muzzling of dissenting voices by the administration of the day to the unexpected handshake, it’s been a political melodrama of sorts.

Reflecting on the pre-election and post-election happenings, Kenya comes out as a flourishing oligarchy and a failing democracy, a twisted one for that matter.

Fundamentally, a democracy is a political system characterized by a free, fair and credible electoral process. On the other hand, the electoral process in an oligarchy comes out as fraudulent, fake and crooked.

Basing on the credibility of the electoral process in the lead up to the 2018 general elections, it is correct to assert that Kenya’s trajectory towards a vibrant democracy is twisted.

Historically, Kenya’s political system, and extensively the economic system, only benefit few individuals who control the means of production and the balance of power. This is an explicit manifestation of an oligarchy.

Kenya’s pre-supposed democratic tendencies, to say the least, are far-fetched and illusionary. Politically and economically, the majority, whom democracy accords the right to call the shots, have never had their way in the country with the exception of the formation of the NARC administration and the institutionalization of the current constitutional dispensation.

An honest rumination in view of Kenya’s political and electoral malfeasance wouldn’t take place without weighty consideration of the compromised Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), the role and influence of the Western states – the so-called masters and defenders of democratic ideals, the excessively irrational average voter, the highly deceptive public relations (PR) and political consultancy firms, and the Third Liberation whose conceptualization is fast waning.

Basically, an institution is as good or bad as the people charged with the mandate to steer it. From the family – the basic unit of social organization, a school, an organization, a football team and a government, competence is a tenet necessary for the success or failure of an entity.

In the run up to the 2018 general elections IEBC’s senior officers proved to be partisan and compromised thus jeopardizing the independence of the electoral body.

Independence of an electoral body is the foremost step in having a free, fair and credible electoral process. The independence of the IEBC is interfered with right from the appointments of the commissioners and other senior officers of the country’s electoral body.

The embattled chair of IEBC Wafula Chebukati has proven to be quite incompetent but this is not a surprise anyway given his subpar performance while being vetted by Parliament for the hot seat. He was not the best out of the other candidates and being appointed to chair the IEBC fixed him in a corner.

Other commissioners were clearly partisan and their political intentions well known. We can’t have a clean electoral process with such poisoned minds running an exercise that determines the fate of Kenyans economically, socially and politically.

Western states – the masters of impunity and double-standards – supported a corrupt regime out of geo-political and geo-economic interests. Led by the American government, they pronounced the legitimacy of an administration which they were not in favour of in 2013.

Who offers support and confers legitimacy to a regime whose rogue police officers killed and injured innocent Kenyans including harmless children?

Setting the record straight, political correctness is the language preferred by the governments of the Western states. Kenya’s case and other immoral governments across Africa being cheered on by the West is largely informed by their (Western states) intentions to counter China’s influence on the continent.

If the likes of the American, British, French and other Western governments are champions and crusaders of democracy, then it would make sense if they were not funding undemocratic regimes and toppling legitimate governments around the world.

As matter-of-factly, Western governments have never condemned the rogue and undemocratic regime in Saudi Arabia. They wreaked havoc in Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, Syria and other nations but only as a divide and rule scheme driven by paranoia and economic interests.

Apart from the political relief offered by the West, the deception and destruction caused by the global political consultancy firms such as Cambridge Analytica should never be forgotten going forward.

The political consultancy firms are in pursuit of profits, economic capital and economic power as the political parties and formations are hell-bent in pursuit of political capital and political power. But to what extent is the price to be paid for the trade-off between business profits and political power?

Apparently, the price is costly and takes the form of a disintegrated country. These firms pursue their profits by optimizing on the structural weaknesses of a country.

For instance, in Kenya, Cambridge Analytica which was responsible for running the Jubilee Party’s political campaign ostensibly capitalized on the ethnic fault lines that are highly visible in the Kenyan society.

So far no serious step has been made in banning such firms from operating in Kenya especially in running political campaigns. This country is a joke. Pressure from various entities eventually forced Cambridge Analytica to shut down its operations.

In South Africa, PR firm Bell Pottinger, known to work for despots, was chased from the country after running racially charged campaigns especially on economic reform and the prevalent socio-economic inequalities in the country.

But unlike in Kenya where the public never protested about Cambridge Analytica’s divisive campaign, the publics in Britain and South Africa were vocal on the firms’ PR gimmicks.

Involvement of these firms in Kenya’s political space with the intention of driving narratives that are misleading and dangerous casts the country as a twisted democracy.

Embers of the Third Liberation that flamed up following the flawed electoral process flickered out as soon as the ‘handshake’ between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta came to the fore.

Doubts have been cast on the supposed Building Bridges Initiative and yours truly is among the doubters. Judging from Kenya’s political history the ‘handshake’ is as good as any other political deal and its abandonment would not be a surprise.

Political (electoral) justice and economic justice should be the key drivers of the Third Liberation. But with political interests taking centre stage the hopes for a new Kenya are dashed.

Failure to address injustices committed in recent times and long before that will not actualize building bridges on the social, political and economic issues that divide Kenyans. Ignoring the implementation of the recommendations put forth by the Truth Justice and Reconciliation Commission (TJRC) only sets the country on a path for intensified calls for secession, massive socioeconomic inequality and electoral skullduggery in the near future.

In view of the aforementioned weighty issues, where does the Kenyan public stand? There is no hope for a better Kenya considering the dubious electoral and political decisions made by majority of members of the public.

Can the Kenyan public dislodge the oligarchs that have patronized the country’s politics and economy since the dawn of independence? This is a question of fundamental importance. But with a significant number of Kenyans voting in an unintelligent fashion and being unapologetic about their ethnic political ideologies there is no hope of Kenya transitioning to a nation.

Kenya has never been a nation. All the episodic moments of nationhood – independence, the Second Liberation, dethronement of the rogue and despotic KANU regime and promulgation of the current Constitution – involved elements of disenchantment with individuals at the centre of the government preferring to subscribe to the ideals of an oligarchy.

Let’s not pretend to pursue national unity in the spirit of the ‘handshake’ and the doctrine of accepting and moving on while escaping from addressing the country’s problems. That is not how a nation is built.

Of Whales, Sharks, the Big Fish & the Small Fish: On Kenya’s State of Corruption

Image: Courtesy. 

The same administration, the same storyline, the same state of affairs! That is the Jubilee administration for you folks! The recent revelations of the grand looting at the National Youth Service (NYS), and at the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) among other scams are a reminder of the failures and incompetence of the Jubilee administration.

I’m not engaging in a kind of a guns-blazing-no-holds-barred attack against the purported government of the majority, whose legitimacy is a knife-edge question, but undertaking an almost saintly act of expressing my disenchantment regarding the theft of public funds and immorality at the heart of government institutions.

It is immoral to embezzle resources that belong to the public. For the last five years, there is no doubt whatsoever that the Jubilee administration has presided over world class corruption and unrivalled immorality.

Recently, the Principal Secretary of the Interior Ministry, Karanja Kibicho, admitted that in the last five years corruption has gone up by 240%. One wonders how such public theft occurs while no individuals can be held accountable.

Normally, an incident of theft requires an agent before it is sanctioned and in due course materializes. This raises a fundamental concern in regards to why perpetrators of these scams especially under the Jubilee administration are yet to be jailed. Does it mean that corruption involving government agencies involves faceless individuals?

Kenya, under the rule of the Jubilee administration is a total joke, and as a matter of fact it can hardly be thought of as a country let alone a nation. And to set the record straight, Kenya cannot be thought of as a nation.

In fact, Kenya has only flirted with the state of nationhood thrice: the first time at the dawn of independence; the second time in 2002/2003 when NARC took over; and in 2010 following the promulgation of the current constitution.

Going by the political definition of the term ‘country’, Kenya does not qualify as one because of the immorality sanctioned by government officers in the form of plundering resources. Thus, Kenya is a den of corruption and a haven to the corrupt. This is the major reason why the proceeds from the economy only benefit a few individuals and not the majority.

Yes to Vice, No to Virtue

Profiting from vice is the order of the day in Kenya and this is an indication of a society characterized by systemic failure. The high affinity to vice than virtue in Kenya is not just a black spot for the public sector as the private sector is equally corrupt.

From the so-called whales, sharks, the big fish to the small fish of the rungs of the Kenyan society, the vice of corruption rules; its tentacles are widely spread and the culture is deeply entrenched.

Corruption has evolved over the years and it has become a national culture. Even with a constitution that lays a lot of emphasis on integrity, efforts to de-institutionalize the culture of corruption have proven to be futile.

It is nonsensical to have a government that is dominated with robber barons, individuals whose main motive is to speculate how they can orchestrate looting of public resources and from where.

We should not forget that by the term government reference is drawn to the national government and the county governments including their various arms. For instance, at the national level we have the Executive, Parliament and Judiciary. At the county level, we have the county assemblies and the county executives.

Sadly, these organs are dominated by people who are short of character, and in any case they would hardly meet the threshold of occupying state offices in countries or nations that are serious democracies and where integrity is highly regarded.

But, with a saintly reflection it is clear that citizens have given consent to the culture of corruption to permeate in the Republic. Look, majority of the citizens – those eligible to vote – are either compromised and vote for the wrong people or do not vote at all hence allowing the corrupt to be elected in office.

Kenya began its post-independence journey on a path that can be described as evil, highly immoral and certainly vicious. The Jomo Kenyatta-led administration was full of individuals whose desire was to amass wealth at the expense of fighting poverty, disease and ignorance – the main challenges that Kenyans faced at the dawn of independence.

Unfortunately, the three challenges still bedevil the Republic primarily due to corruption that has been handed down in ceremonious fashion from the Jomo Kenyatta regime, to the perpetually corrupt Moi regime, to the Kibaki administration and to the current rogue and fundamentally corrupt Jubilee administration.

Dealing with corruption in the Republic calls for not only upholding the rule of law but also advocating for a culture change in the various levels and classes of the Kenyan society. This means in essence that the social aspects need to be looked at to ensure that Kenyans begin to endear themselves to virtue and not vice.

For instance, the role of the family in the socialization and enculturation process of an individual needs to be revisited. Nowadays, the family is a neglected institution that no longer imparts the socially approved morals like integrity and being mindful of others’ welfare. The family has instead degenerated into an entity where greed is hatched, preached and practiced.

Additionally, the education system has failed to teach learners about morality and integrity. How do we expect students and pupils who steal exams to be the yardsticks of morality in the Republic? And hopelessly, teachers and parents facilitate the culture of cheating in examinations. Is the present and future of Kenya not doomed?

On the Price of Corruption

Corruption is a commodity and just like other valuable products, it has a price and a market determined by the forces of demand and supply.

Normally, the production of a commodity and distribution are determined by a set of incentives. Incentives motivate the producers to produce commodities and enable traders to engage in trading activities. For instance, the primary incentive for capitalists is to make profits.

Since corruption is a commodity, its value is attached to the various socio-economic classes that exist in Kenya with each class engaging in corruption activities it can easily afford. The rich – those with means – can easily afford to engage in corruption in the upper echelons of government. The poor – the have nots, the scum of the Kenyan society – and the hoi polloi can afford to pay for corruption that takes place at the lower levels of the Republic’s socio-economic and political strata.

The bottom line, however, is that each social and economic class can afford to pay for corruption depending on the socio-economic stratification, just like in a normal product market where the rich can afford purchasing luxurious commodities and the poor can afford buying low quality sometimes cheap counterfeit goods.

Thence, the price of corruption is too low in Kenya in that it can easily be afforded by majority of the citizens whether one is looting billions from state institutions or paying a fifty shilling bribe for easier access to public services.

A vicious fight against corruption in the Republic, therefore, requires that this vice be made unaffordable. In essence, this calls for the cost of engaging in corruption to be increased, and as a result eliminate the incentives that facilitate graft to take place.

In increasing the cost of engaging in corruption and subsequently its price, it implies that punitive measures such as death sentence should be experimented and eventually instituted.

Just like a typical economy with extractive institutions where inequality between the poor and the rich is massive - with the rich getting away with whatever economic benefit as the have nots hope for the better – the legal system in Kenya is rogue and unequal with the whales, the sharks and the big fish that engage in corruption going scot free as the small fish literally face the full force of the law. This is outright subversion of the rule of law.

As matter-of-factly, the Jubilee administration is busy engaging in mere publicity stunts of arresting the NYS scandal suspects and talking tough as usual while the politicians, and other wheeler-dealers in government circles who choreograph the looting are yet to be prosecuted.

What happened to the first NYS scandal investigations? The Executive, Parliament and the Judiciary owe the tax payers an explanation on this.

By the way, in the month of May 2018 a clerk at the Kibera Huduma Centre was sentenced to two years in jail and fined Kshs. 500,000 for taking a bribe of Kshs. 2,500. This clerk is a small fish. What about the big fish, the whales and the sharks of the NYS scandals, the NCPB looting, and other scams engineered under the watch of the Jubilee administration?

Ours is not a country; it is a den of thieves and a haven for the robber barons and the irredeemably corrupt.

The Political Economy of the South Sudan Conflict

A section of rebels in South Sudan.
Image: Courtesy. 

It is close to five years since civil war began in South Sudan with negotiations failing to broker a peace deal between the warring groups. The unending conflict that started in December 2013 has resulted in destitution with thousands murdered and millions displaced.

The Council on Foreign Relations estimates that 50,000 South Sudanese have died since December 2013 when the war began. The Human Rights Watch approximates that 2 million South Sudanese have been internally displaced due to the conflict, while a further 2 million have sought for refuge in the neighboring countries.

Of the 2 million refugees beyond the borders of South Sudan, 1 million are in Uganda. Of the 2 million people that are internally displaced, 230,000 are camping at various United Nations’ bases across the country.

As war ravages Africa’s youngest state, the country’s economy has collapsed. As highlighted by the African Development Bank, the economic growth of the South Sudanese economy is on a freefall with the country’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracting. For instance, the country’s GDP shrank by 5.3% in 2015, contracted by 13.1% in 2016 and it is estimated to have declined by 6.1% in 2017.

Additionally, the country’s inflation rate reveals the ebbing of the economy’s fortunes with the latest figures indicating that the rate of inflation is 161%.

Following the economic hardship experienced in South Sudan, President Salva Kiir recently fired the Governor of the Central Bank and his deputy over the failure to deal with inflation. This was a symptomatic gesture bearing in mind that the country’s sinking economy is only reacting to the volatile political situation, and the sacking of the two officials is a scapegoat of the structural challenges that bedevil South Sudan.

Structurally, the primary reason why the conflict in South Sudan will not be ending anytime soon regards the distribution of wealth and the proceeds generated from the wealth. Internally and externally, conflicting interests among various groups have stalled the peace process and in any case, these groups continue to fuel the civil strife.

Internally, the desire to amass wealth is driving more entities into the war. Recently, Paul Malong, a former chief of staff of the army formed a rebel movement with the intention of fighting against the current administration which he considers to have failed in regards to restoring peace in the country.

Each of the existing militia groups seeks to impose some form of territorial control over the regions which are considered to be highly endowed with natural resources. The corrupt nature of the Salva Kiir led administration prompted the onset of the crisis with his family members and cronies looting the country’s national wealth at the expense of the ordinary South Sudanese citizens.

Transparency International ranks South Sudan at position 179 out of 180 countries as per the 2017 Corruption Perception Index report. This implies that South Sudan is an excessively corrupt state.

The question of who controls what in view of the natural resources is fundamental in understanding the genesis and nature of the conflict. From the exploration of oil, to gold mining activities as well as poaching and trafficking of wildlife, few individuals have strategically positioned themselves to benefit from the country’s natural resources.

With the economy grounded, oil exploration activities seem to be on a lull. But illicit trading of fuel is vibrant in the country an act that occasioned President Salva Kiir to issue a stern warning to the illegal fuel traders in July 2017.

However, the warning by the incompetent president can be regarded as a sideshow if the information documented in the Sentry Report is factual. The Sentry Report, titled “Fueling Atrocities: Oil and War in South Sudan”, outlines how funds from the oil exploration activities are used to fund militia groups and in due course aggravate the conflict.

According to the report, several militia groups exist among the Dinka community (Salva Kiir’s ethnic group) and they are tasked with protecting the oil reserves, an act that has led them to be widely known as the “Oil Protection Force.” The report further highlights on how the government finances the activities of the militia groups allied to the government.

Externally, geopolitical and geoeconomic factors continue to exacerbate the conflict in South Sudan. Both regional and foreign states have a hand in the unending crisis. The scramble for the natural resources in South Sudan and the benefits derived from the war occasion a number of states to hatch strategies intended to prolong the war.

In as much as the USA is vocal in pushing for the South Sudanese president to restore peace mainly through the use of sanctions and other threats, it cannot be denied that the American government is also responsible for the chaos.

With hindsight, the USA government played a primary role in the creation of the South Sudanese state. In fact, as highlighted by the Foreign Policy magazine, George W. Bush prioritized the creation of South Sudan in his foreign policy agenda.

Historically, the USA has greatly been involved in countries that are rich in oil and South Sudan is not an exception. The USA has a penchant of creating chaos and instability in order to profit economically from natural resources in states perceived as fragile. With Chinese presence in South Sudan being visible, USA may be using the chaos as a counter-strategy of China’s commercial interests in the country.

It is on record that the USA government declared President Salva Kiir as “an unfit partner.” Later on speaking before the United Nations Security Council, US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley warned that “words are no longer sufficient” in regards to the ongoing civil war. Such sentiments are an indication of a gloomy situation perhaps involving the violent removal of Salva Kiir from power.

But the forceful removal of Salva Kiir as president will be recipe for more chaos and the state building process will be even harder than it is at the moment. History shows that USA’s violent interventions result in the formation of puppet governments working for the interest of USA rather than for the collective interest of the citizens.

Though China has actively intervened in the conflict contrary to the fundamental ideals of its hands-off foreign policy, it cannot be ruled out that Beijing supports the Kiir administration with weapons to fight the various rebel groups.

Furthermore, Ukraine was accused in May last year for supplying arms to the South Sudanese government. It cannot be ruled out at the moment that such a similar activity is going on.

Regionally, various states are responsible for the civil strife in South Sudan. For instance, Sudan has a hand in the chaos rocking the world’s youngest state. Before gaining independence, the south battled with the north for a record 22 years between 1983 and 2005 in what has come to be referred to as the Second Sudan Civil War.

Origin of the Second Sudan Civil War can be traced to the attempt by former Sudanese president, Gaafar Mohamed el-Nimeiri to create an Islamic state, a move which forced the southerners under the leadership of John Garang de Mabior to put up an armed struggle.

With the independence of the southerners, however, Khartoum’s nosiness in the affairs of Juba is a fundamental factor that has prolonged the conflict. This follows the disagreement between the north and the south over the oil-rich region of Abyei.

Abyei belongs to South Sudan but since it is endowed with a lot of oil, the north keeps preying on the oil with total disregard of the Abyei Protocol which required that the region holds a referendum to decide whether it belongs to the south or the north.

Currently, Khartoum continues to run the affairs of Abyei with President Omar al-Bashir declaring in February last year that the region was part of the north and ordered the residents to apply for identification documents as per the laws of Sudan.

Khartoum offers support, financially and militarily, to some of the rebel groups in South Sudan in order to prolong the conflict and in due course profit from the oil in Abyei.

Uganda’s interests in South Sudan play a major role in the conflict. Uganda is South Sudan’s largest trading partner with various Ugandan entities engaged in the trading of oil, agricultural produce like maize among other commodities. As reported in February last year, Uganda was set to import gold from South Sudan.

Military interventions of the Ugandan army serve to protect the interests of Kampala in South Sudan. Additionally, driven by the paranoia of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), President Yoweri Museveni finds a justification to stir the waters in South Sudan. The Ugandan government collectively supports the South Sudanese government and various militias so that Uganda can continue profiteering from the civil strife. Uganda is home to 1 million South Sudanese refugees and this means money from the West to the government and its cronies.

In January 2018, Adama Dieng, the U. N secretary general’s special adviser for the prevention of genocide, accused Kenya and Uganda of fueling the conflict by allowing weapons and ammunitions destined for South Sudan to pass through their territories.

The corrupt nature of the Kenyan and Ugandan governments is a precipitating factor for the shipment and transportation of large quantities of weapons and ammunitions to South Sudan.

Kenya and Uganda host a large number of South Sudanese nationals. Majority of the South Sudanese government officials and their families lead opulent lifestyles in Nairobi and Kampala. The rich government officials and their cronies as well as the wealthy individuals financing the militias profit from the civil war as the average and poor South Sudanese languish in destitution.

Resolving the conflict calls for setting up mechanisms to look into the distribution of the natural resources and/or wealth in the country. Until the question of “who profits from the natural resources” is effectively answered, chaos will continue rocking South Sudan.

This post was first published on The Africa Vigil. 

Let’s Address Electoral Injustice & Stop the Pretence

Embattled Chairman of IEBC.
Photo: Courtesy. 

Several weeks after the ‘handshake’ between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta, political temperatures seem to have cooled down. The opinion shared by a significant majority of the Kenyan citizenry is the need to focus on development and not the political ballyhoo that was the norm during the electioneering period.

It is common for Kenyan politicians occupying various political offices to insist on the need to forget about what they term in their own words as unnecessary politicking.

Well, they might have invoked the thought of using commonsense whose rarity in Kenya’s political sphere is legendary.

One of the striking features of Kenya’s politics is the unnecessary politicking that has attained remarkable standards and grand notoriety. But sentiments laden with phrases such as unnecessary politicking often serve as statements of convenience to put off the politically incorrect folks calling for reforms or individuals keen to wrestle power from the incumbents.

Proponents of the notion that selectively encourages sections of the electorate to ignorantly embrace the development mantra and pretentiously forget about politics are, to say the least, an uninformed bunch of irresponsible politicians.

I cannot fail to express my displeasure and disappointment in regards to the false narration on the notion of promoting development regarded as the ultimate trade-off for the so-called unnecessary politicking. This is political brainwashing at its best.

Unbeknownst to many, development is a multidimensional concept and its narrow interpretation is a question of subjectivity.

The cunning and conniving Kenyan politicians religiously spin the misinformation that development is all about economic growth. They wouldn’t prioritize social and political development that are elemental in the structural transformation of a country.

And even as they pretentiously champion for economic growth and development, they tend to forget that economic reforms meant to address income inequalities, unemployment and the high cost of living are fundamentally important.

Unfortunately, the kind of development that is the politician’s best bet and metric for performance is that based on physical infrastructural projects such as roads and buildings most of which tend to be under-utilized and constructed based on voting patterns in a given constituency, nationally or locally.

Kenya’s political class has never been committed in promoting the country’s political development. The culture of impunity is deeply entrenched in the country’s political system, and worst of all, the electoral process is compromised with the electoral body’s independence jeopardized by the antics of the invisible political hand.

Vision 2030, whose attainment will be the greatest miracle of the 21^st century, categorically outlines that Kenya’s development is to be propelled by three pillars namely the social pillar, economic pillar and political pillar.

The political pillar is to facilitate the entrenchment of democracy. A notable milestone under this pillar was the drafting and ratifying of a new constitution that replaced the old, tattered colonial legal relic that had been punctured for 47 years between 1963 and 2010.

But close to eight years after abandoning the fossilized colonial constitutional dispensation, whose observance was a matter of political correctness and convenience, nothing much has changed. The full implementation of the current constitution seems to be an option and not a duty for the government of the day.

For instance, the electoral process is still subject to manipulation with the independence of the electoral body only existing in name. With the benefit of hindsight, the conduct of the Independent Electoral & Boundaries Commission (IEBC) in the 2013 and 2017 general elections leaves a lot to be desired.

The two general elections reveal the total lack of seriousness to get over the electoral hangovers of Zacchaeus Chesoni and Samuel Kivuitu during the era of the defunct Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK).

After Kivuitu’s first class arrogance and unrivaled dalliance with the netherworld, following his cat-and-mouse games of releasing fabricated presidential results in 2007, majority of Kenyans believed that with the recommendations of the Kriegler Commission, electoral injustice would be addressed once and for all.

We were wrong. The power hungry political gods would hatch a conspiracy with the ghosts of Chesoni and Kivuitu to wreck IEBC’s intentions to deliver a credible election. The first IEBC team has an egg-faced history of siphoning taxpayers’ money through the procurement of fake kits meant for biometric voter registration at a cost of over Kshs. 9 billion.

The discredited and disgraced IEBC team under the wobbly leadership of Wanyonyi Chebukati is not in any way better than Issack Hassan’s team. Chebukati’s team is a true manifestation of world class incompetence.

Chebukati was set to fail from the onset. His dismal performance during the interviews to fill up vacant positions at the commission was a signal of the flippant leadership he brought to the electoral body. His wonky leadership created opportunities for manipulation of the electoral system set up by IEBC, and allowed commissioners to be compromised resulting in the annulment of the August 8^th presidential election results.

Your’s truly holds a record, never mind whether it is a dubious or distinguished one, in deprecating Chebukati’s leadership from when he was interviewed for the country’s most difficult job. One of his colleagues, Roselyn Akombe, resigned last year, and recently the electoral body has witnessed the exodus of three other commissioners.

Apart from the intrigues facing the dishonoured electoral body, the country is now awash with the debate on the much hyped ‘Big Four’ policy agenda and the ‘handshake’. The ‘Big Four’ agenda degrades the relevance of political justice and democracy in development, and promotes the notion that economic development is more important.

Any sane economist would make a submission that democracy is elemental in the development process. However, authoritarian political regimes have also shown that economic growth and development can also be attained without the entrenchment of democracy.

But then democratic countries prosper economically when compared to authoritarian states whose economies falter when they disregard the need for political reforms. This is the path that the current administration has embraced; economics matters more than politics. This is a warped perception.

Conventional folks are banking on the unity office created as a result of the ‘handshake’ to address fundamental issues such as electoral injustice. Methinks that this won’t happen as the ‘handshake’ was an event born out of political interests.

If the Uhuru Kenyatta led administration was genuinely indebted to Kenya’s prosperity then at least political justice and electoral reforms should have featured in the much publicized ‘Big Four’ agenda.

To guarantee the country prosperity it is imperative that political justice, and in particular far-reaching electoral reforms, should be prioritized. Self-inflicted ignorance and arrogance livened through the “it is time for development” phrase is a denial of the challenges facing the Republic.

On Africa’s Free Trade Initiative: Grand Illusion or Breakthrough?

African leaders during the AfCFTA Summit.
Image: Courtesy

On 21^st of March 2018 in the city of Kigali, 44 member states of the African Union (AU) ratified the establishment of the Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA). Ratification of the CFTA was the main agenda during the Extraordinary Summit on the African Continental Free Trade Area.

The Extraordinary Summit was a culmination of a series of meetings seeking to boost the intra-African trade which, according to the 2017 African Economic Outlook report, is estimated to be at 15% of Africa’s total trade. Comparatively, Africa’s trade with China and the European Union is at 15% and 30% respectively of the continent’s total trade.

Countless efforts have been made in the past to boost the intra-African trade, but it was during the 18^th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the AU held in Addis Ababa in January 2012, that a definite plan was formulated to increase trade among African countries.

For instance, the Action Plan on Boosting Intra-Africa Trade (BIAT) was launched during the 18^th Ordinary Session, and it highlights seven key clusters to promote trade among African countries. The pillars include trade policy, trade facilitation, productive capacity, trade-related infrastructure, trade finance, trade information and factor market integration.

Basis of CFTA Establishment

The overarching objective of the CFTA is the creation of a single continental market for commodities through the free movement of people and investments across Africa. CFTA is deemed as the precursor of the yet to be established Continental Customs Union and the African Customs Union.

With hindsight, approval of the Lagos Plan of Action in 1980 signaled the intention of African countries to promote economic development with the major highlight of the blueprint being the proposal to establish the African Common Market by the year 2000.

Furthermore, the foundation of the CFTA can also be traced to the Abuja Treaty of 1991 on establishing the African Economic Community (AEC), ratified by 51 heads of governments and states under the auspices of the then Organization of African Unity (OAU).

The Abuja Treaty envisages the establishment of the AEC by strengthening the regional economic blocs in the continent. As such, the Treaty outlines the establishment of the AEC within a period not exceeding 34 years from 1991, through a series of six stages.

Thus, as per this policy document, the AEC should be fully established by 2025 which is impossible bearing in mind the current realities.

More categorically, the sixth stage of the Abuja Treaty outlines that the establishment of the AEC will involve setting up of: the African Common Market, the African Monetary Union, the African Central Bank, and a single African currency among other integration activities.

Additionally, CFTA also has its foundations in the Tripartite Free Trade Area Agreement (TFTA) consented to on 10^th June 2015 by 26 member states of the Common Market for Eastern & Southern Africa (COMESA), the East African Community (EAC), and the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

TFTA is expected to hasten trade activities between the ratifying states through elimination and harmonization of tariffs and non-tariff barriers.

African countries hope to achieve socio-economic development through cross-border trade enhanced by the CFTA framework.

Possible Opportunities?

For decades, Africa has been referred to as the continent with a very high potential in regards to socio-economic prosperity. Afro-optimists have even taken the game of potentiality to another level, a higher one of course, by coining the term ‘Africa Rising.’

A disturbing fact is that Africa has only lived to be defined on the basis of the aforementioned description. It is a subtle affirmation of why the ‘Africa Rising’ narrative is an amorphous view of the purported progress that Africa is making.

I do not endorse the general perception that Africa is rising. Africa cannot be rising as a whole when civil strife is the order of the day in a number of African states. Africa cannot be rising when poverty levels are on the increase. Africa cannot be rising when neo-colonialism is on an upward trajectory. It is that simple.

Far from that, African countries are set to unlock their high economic potential through the CFTA. With a population of 1.2 billion people it is expected that such a population will be a catalyst for the continent’s structural transformation - at this juncture it sounds as if the CFTA is the continent’s magic moment for socio-economic prosperity.

A high population can be advantageous as well as disadvantageous. It is advantageous in the sense that it offers a ready market for commodities and the European Union (EU), China and lately India have shown us that. However, this has to be reinforced with other factors critical in promoting economic growth and development such as innovation among others.

A high population is only disadvantageous when rates of economic growth and development registered are poor. And this has been the challenge facing African countries for decades.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that operationalization of CFTA first by cutting the intra-African tariffs could generate $3.6 billion in welfare gains to Africa majorly through increased production and cheaper goods.

Africa’s economic potential will be unleashed by the CFTA primarily if free movement of people and commodities will take place. But during the launch of the CFTA in Kigali only 30 states signed the free movement protocol. This restricts the movement of people from one African country to another, with the mobility regarded as beneficial at least to some extent.

Challenges to CFTA

Establishment of the CFTA has been lauded as a crucial step towards the economic transformation of Africa, but there are challenges which threaten its take-off.

One of the challenges is neo-colonialism advanced by foreign powers. With China’s heightened global ambitions and take-over of Africa, in addition to the geo-political activities of nations such as USA and others, the expected rollout of the CFTA is set to falter.

An ambitious Africa is a threat to the global ambitions of the foreign states that control political and economic activities in the continent.

It will only take a few Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) conferences and the United States-Africa Leaders Summit meetings to change the CFTA equation, with Beijing and Washington organizing these conferences on the basis of “renewed interest in Africa” theme.

In addition, the flippant nature of majority of Africa’s political leaders is a challenge to the success of the CFTA. On several occasions, Africa leaders have gracefully appended their signatures to a number of declarations seeking to promote social, economic and political development of the continent.

But amid all the fanfare witnessed during such declarations, implementation of the approved policy proposals is done in an erratic manner and dubious fashion. Take the case of the Malabo Declaration and the Maputo Declaration meant to address Africa’s food insecurity and food production levels.

Political leaders in Africa have to endear themselves to the ideals of the CFTA and show unrivalled commitment. CFTA is bound to fail with subpar political goodwill.

The notion of open borders is not only a threat to the success of the CFTA but also to the unity of Africans. There are various research studies in support for open borders with one such study being a working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research.  

A common argument for open borders is the increase in productivity for a country where immigrants settle with such people remitting a significant proportion of their earnings or transferring essential skills and technology to their mother countries.

However, various dynamics must be taken into consideration regarding the notion of open borders in view of free movement of people among African countries. African countries have higher rates of unemployment and this is dangerous with the idea of open borders.

Africa’s largest economies by GDP, the most advanced economies, and generally economically stable countries are naturally bound to attract immigrants. But such countries including Nigeria, South Africa, Botswana, Kenya and others have high rates of unemployment.

So, an influx of immigrants to such countries will create tensions with the citizens who will harbor perceptions of their jobs being taken away by non-citizens. The xenophobic attacks in South Africa over the years offer insight into this matter, and perhaps it informed the decision by the governments of South Africa, Nigeria and others not to sign the free movement protocol.

Nationalist sentiments centred on immigration spawned by open borders may occasion some of the African countries to withdraw from the CFTA arrangement or maybe the AEC in the event that the envisaged transition takes place. Brexit and USA’s imminent exit from NAFTA offer insightful lessons.

CFTA will create economic prosperity in Africa, but its success depends on institutional factors such as eradication of corruption, peace, economic and political rights, and generally, competent political leadership.

And depending on what happens next, CFTA can either be a grand illusion or a breakthrough for Africa’s economic prosperity.

This article first appeared on theafricavigil.wordpress.com.