The Budget Policy Statement, otherwise
commonly referred to as the government budget, is a policy edifice that reveals
how the government plans to raise revenue and how it intends to spend the revenue
that it anticipates to collect. On Thursday March 30th this year,
the Cabinet Secretary in charge of The National Treasury Henry Rotich presented
in the National Assembly the fifth budgetary estimates under the Jubilee
administration. The trend set by the current administration, a liking for
highly ambitious budgets, again took centre stage when Mr. Rotich presented the
2017/2018 Budget Policy Statement (BPS). Since the inception of the Jubilee
administration the highly ambitious budgets that have been drafted by The
National Treasury with instructions from the Executive have led to a steady
increase in the level and/or amount of the total public debt.
A budget being a supreme policy tool is
at the same time a political tool; the policy-making process is not insulated
from the political forces and the political process. This is primarily based on
the simple logic that the President would always want to oversee the allocation
of funds that would facilitate the implementation of the development projects
especially those that were part of the campaign pledges. 2017 being a year that
the Kenyan polity is expected to have general elections, the budget as
obviously expected outlined the agenda of the current administration ostensibly
to have an edge as far as the re-election of President Uhuru Kenyatta is
concerned.
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| CS Rotich with Budget Appropriations Committee chair Mutava Musyimi (Left) and CS Devolution Mwangi Kiunjuri (Right) before presenting the budget. Image: Courtesy |
Termed as a pro-Wanjiku budget by those
who politically orient towards the Jubilee administration and pronounced as a
populist policy/development agenda by the members of the opposite side of the
political divide, it is vitally important to stick to the available facts and
at the same time avoid fictitious information. The 2017/18 budget amounts to
Kshs.2.643 trillion which represents the largest budget ever in Kenya’s
history. Out of the Kshs.2.6 trillion that the government is planning to spend
it can only manage to finance this expenditure by Kshs.1.549 trillion which is
the total amount of revenue that is expected to be raised by the Kenya Revenue
Authority in the next financial year. However, the total amount of revenue that
is inclusive of the Appropriations-In-Aid (AIA) or grants is expected to be
Kshs.1.704 trillion.
With expenditure expected to amount to
Kshs.2.6 trillion and the total revenue at Kshs.1.7 trillion, this creates a
budgetary deficit of Kshs.880.4 billion. It is important to note that CS Rotich
was very economical on the total amount of expenditure and net lending for the
next fiscal year, 2017/2018. According to the budget statement that he
presented in the National Assembly, the total expenditure and net lending for
2017/18 is Kshs.2.287 trillion with a fiscal deficit of Kshs.524.6 billion. There
is something that the CS never wanted to reveal to the Kenyans who are
seriously concerned about the state of affairs in this Republic. The purported
deficit of Kshs.524.6 billion was arrived at after leaving out the exact
expenditure of the county governments. With the inclusion of the expenditure by
the county governments the fiscal deficit amounts to Kshs.880.4 billion.
The Overarching Positives
There are a number of positive policy
proposals that stand out from the 2017/2018 Budget Policy Statement (BPS) from
a macroeconomic standpoint. The manufacturing sector is a crucial sector in
terms of accelerating the economic growth and structural transformation of an
economy. Over the years, a number of policy proposals in view of the sector
have always been drafted so as to inject a high degree of vibrancy into the
sector. Earlier on, such policies fronted for the establishment of the Export
Processing Zones (EPZs) and currently, the establishment of the Special
Economic Zones (SEZs) in Lamu, Mombasa and Kisumu.
Provision of incentives such as
exemption from Value Added Tax (VAT), periodical reduction in the corporate tax
rates, quality infrastructure and one stop shops for licenses as outlined in
the Budget Policy Statement (BPS) will pave way for the establishment of the
SEZs. For instance, the CS National Treasury made the following proposals to
create an enabling environment with respect to the SEZs:
- · Amendment of the Income Tax Act to exempt the dividends paid to non-residents by the firms located in the SEZs.
- · A reduction of 15% to 5% of the withholding tax on interest payable to non-residents by the SEZ-located firms.
- · Allow SEZ firms to deduct 100% of the investment cost of building and machinery.
- · Exempt goods imported by SEZ firms from export duty and exemption of imported goods from Import Declaration Fees by the same firms.
Furthermore, the current administration
seems to be focused on positioning Kenya as a vehicle assembling hub in the
region as evidenced in the Budget Policy Statement (BPS). The CS made a
proposal to amend the Income Tax Act so as to reduce the corporate tax for new
vehicle assemblers from 30% to 15% in the first five years of their
establishment. In addition, the proclamation by the CS on the completion of the
Comprehensive Automotive Industry Development Policy and the Automotive
Industry Development Plan will be key in promoting the growth of the vehicle
assembly industry.
Food security has been and is still a
big challenge for the country because of the prevailing inconsistencies in the
implementation of the existing food security policies. To promote agricultural
production, the irrigation projects have been allocated a total of Kshs.6.3
billion while the fertilizer subsidization programme has been allocated
Kshs.4.1 billion.
The 2017/18 BPS presented a win for a
significant number of the low income earners. This is in view of the expansion
of the tax band by 10% and increase of the tax relief by 10% implying that a
significant number of the low income earners will be exempted from paying
income tax. As a result, the lowest taxable income has been raised from Kshs.11,
135 to Kshs.13, 486 per month. In addition to these tax exemptions and reliefs,
the next financial year will also see the low income earners continue enjoying
tax exemption on bonuses, overtime allowance and retirement benefits that were
effected in the on-going fiscal year. Holding other factors constant, this will
increase the level of disposable income for the low income earners though it
comes out as a policy meant to gain political mileage as these earners form the
largest proportion of the voters who turn out to vote.
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| CS Rotich presenting the Budget Policy Statement in the National Assembly. Image: Courtesy |
Amid the hue and cry of the majority of
Kenyans on the rising cost of maize flour and other food stuff, The National
Treasury CS scrapped off the input tax charged on maize and wheat flour by
zero-rating the two commodities. This implies that the prices of maize and
wheat flour need to decrease significantly. The maize that will be imported in
the next four months will be exempted from import duty which in effect implies
that common end products from maize and wheat flour need to be relatively cheaper.
The CS put on notice the county governments which have perfected the act of
double taxation. This has created a hostile business environment.
The continued investment in infrastructure
is vitally important in enhancing the productive capacity of the country’s
economy. In the 2017/18 BPS, Kshs.134.9 billion has been set aside for roads,
Kshs.75.6 billion for the development of the Standard Gauge Railway, Kshs.10
billion for the LAPSSET project, Kshs.2.6 billion for the expansion of airports
and Kshs.16.4 billion for expansion of the energy projects.
Macroeconomic & Fiscal Concerns
There are sensitive issues which are
supposed to be looked at objectively as far as the BPS is concerned. The first
issue is the accumulating level of the total public debt which, according to
the latest statistics by The National Treasury, stands at Kshs.3.827 trillion. Whether
using the fiscal deficit of Kshs.880.4 billion or Kshs.524 billion, the level of
public debt is set to hit the Kshs.4 trillion mark at the end of the first
quarter of the 2017/18 financial year. Despite constant reassurances that the
public debt level is sustainable, the situation will sooner or later run out of
control if the level of borrowing is not checked.
The capping of the interest rates has
no doubt resulted in relatively lower levels of credit advanced to the private
sector especially the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The CS
informed Kenyans as he tabled the BPS that the government in conjunction with
the Kenya Bankers Association will commission a study to ascertain the impact
of the interest law caps. To me, that would be a waste of time as the effects
have already been felt. It will be economically prudent to do away with the
caps on the interest rates if at all employment opportunities are to be created
by the SMEs. As long as the interest cap is in place, the banks will
comfortably lend money to the government at the expense of the private sector,
more specifically the SMEs.
Another key concern is the rate and level
of absorption of the budgeted finances. Research statistics indicate that only
60% of the finances set aside for development purposes are absorbed. The rest
is either returned to The National Treasury at the end of the fiscal year or
misappropriated/embezzled. Compound this with the fact that close to one-third
of the national budget (expenditure) is never accounted for. This calls for the
need to exercise financial prudence by the government institutions. In
addition, the Office of the Auditor General must be guaranteed of its
institutional independence in order to fast track the auditing of the accounts
of the national government offices.
The public wage bill issue will still
be fundamental in the 2017/18 fiscal year. If only 2% of the country’s
population composed of public servants is paid 50% of the total revenue then it
implies that out of the Kshs.1.5 trillion expected to be raised by KRA around
Kshs.750 billion will go towards the payment of salaries and allowances. As a
consequence, this has necessitated the freezing of employment apart from the
security personnel, health workers, teachers and a number of technical staff as
outlined in the BPS. The policy recommendations of the Salaries and
Remuneration Commission (SRC) ought to be implemented to the latter but I am
pessimistic because political expediency may override this matter of national
importance.
The Bottom Line
At the end of the day, the
implementation of the policy proposals highlighted in the 2017/18 BPS will
truly determine if indeed the government is committed to creating jobs and
delivering a better life for all Kenyans as per the thematic outline of the BPS
presented by CS Rotich. This is especially the case with the food security
measures and the proposals to establish a vibrant manufacturing sector in the
country. The common denominator therein lies on the level of political will that
will be exercised by the Executive and Parliament.
This article was first published on blog.savicltd.co.ke.
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