The Raila-Uhuru Unity Pact in Perspective

Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga after the meeting held at Harambee House.

Courtesy: Capital FM.

T

he new found camaraderie between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta surprised many people, perhaps with the exception of politicians who have mastered the art of sowing seeds of enmity during daytime and livening their friendship when night falls. Typical Kenyan politicians foot the bill of grand liars.

Equally surprised was the trio of Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula the so-called co-principals of the NASA coalition, which only exists by name, having hit a dead end following a series of unending suspicion and mistrust among the coalition’s parties.

With the trio labeled as the “Three Nigerians” following the narration of the trail of events on January 30^th when Raila Odinga took the oath as the ‘People’s President’, daggers have been drawn in NASA coalition with the enigmatic politician accused of betraying the coalition’s cause; the pursuit for electoral justice.

Infuriated with the Raila-Uhuru pact, the three ‘musketeers’ – Kalonzo, Mudavadi and Wetang’ula – bemoaned the failure to be consulted, and initially they didn’t endorse the agreement between the sons of Jaramogi and Jomo save for Kalonzo who sounded evangelical at a funeral stating how the ‘handshake’ was a great relief to him. 

Lately, though, the embattled ‘musketeers’ have expressed their desire to meet with Uhuru Kenyatta. This came after they realized that they were flirting with the state of political isolation; never mind that the trio is a spineless lot with none of them having neither the capacity nor capability to craft, oil and propel a powerful political machine at the national level.

Far from the intrigues surrounding the Harambee House meeting, a significant proportion of the Republic’s citizens, including the disgraced Kenyan politicians, have expressed support for the two – Raila and Uhuru – in their quest to unite the country.

It is hypocritical not to acknowledge the country’s tainted image as a polity whose national politics is premised on ethnic political formations. But, the million dollar question is whether the latest political development orchestrated by Uhuru and Raila qualifies as a critical juncture that will change the course of the Republic’s national politics for the better.

To state that the Raila-Uhuru deal on building the bridges of nationhood is the real deal in transforming Kenya’s national political architecture only amounts to a blatant bluff, hell bent on ignoring the history of political agreements in the Republic.

An astute observer, insightful analyst as well as a diligent student of Kenyan politics will submit to you that political agreements in Kenya are meant to serve the personal interests of the politicians and not the collective interests of the citizens. It is no wonder that such agreements can be dishonored with the differing politicians forging other alliances while publicly declaring their previously deemed political friends as enemies. Who gets hoodwinked? The ignorant citizens.

Motives of the Unity Agreement

A number of factors are believed to have occasioned the political agreement between the party leaders of the Jubilee Party and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party; ranging from the would-be genuine factors to conspiracies hatched by the legendary and illusionary conspirators. 

The factor that stands out is the visit by the immediate former Secretary of State of the government of USA Rex Tillerson. In as much as various sections of the Kenyan public view this factor as simply coincidental with the Raila-Uhuru meeting, I am convinced that Uncle Sam played a great role in cementing the deal between the two. 

USA is leading the quite obnoxious and vague War on Terror, and the East African region is considered a strategic segment of the African arc in regards to America’s global geopolitical interests.

Any real or perceived division in Kenya’s national politics is believed to significantly energize insurgent groups like the Al Shabaab. And with Kenya mapped out as a very strategic ally to USA, then Washington had to run up and down to bring Raila and Uhuru on the table while dangling carrots such as financial rewards among other material benefits. Are Raila and Uhuru not corrupt?

Secondly, the issue of legacy of the two political leaders is thought to have triggered the meeting. The sons of the Republic’s first President and first Vice President have the intentions to be remembered as having greatly contributed to the healing of an ethnically polarized country. But I highly doubt if their agreement on unity is an elixir that will enable Kenya to be a nation.

And by the way, legacy is to a politician as reputation is to a well-mannered person. At least Kenyan mainstream politicians have no reputation at all bearing in mind their wayward nature and weird mannerisms. 

Thirdly, Raila Odinga may have chosen to embrace the if-you-can’t-beat-them-join-them mantra. In as much as the 2017 presidential election was a charade and a typical monkey business affair, Raila Odinga clearly ran out of options in felling down the corrupt Jubilee administration using gung ho tactics and the trench techniques.

So he may have decided to cooperate with the Jubilee administration to finish it off from within. 

For proper understanding of the former premier’s new found dalliance with his former deputy in the Grand Coalition administration, it is important to revisit Raila Odinga’s political past though in selective terms.

After the 1997 presidential election in which Daniel Moi rigged to emerge victorious despite a divided Opposition, Raila Odinga endeared himself to the ‘professor’ of Kenyan politics, leading to the historical cooperation and thereafter merger between the Kenya African National Union (KANU) and the National Development Party (NDP). The result: dissolution of NDP and formation of ‘New KANU’. 

Raila’s move then was informed by the 2002 succession politics and the possibility that KANU would fail to have a strong and convincing presidential candidate. And the end of the day, Moi embraced ‘Project Uhuru’ and Raila led a mass walk-out of previously KANU diehards from the cockerel party.

Fourthly, the 2022 succession politics may have led to the unity agreement. This factor is informed by the previous (third) one. The doubt is whether Raila will contest for the presidency or not, but the certainty of the answer lies within the two possibilities. 

If he is to vie in 2022, then he won’t be supporting William Ruto and chances are that he might pick a running mate from the Mt. Kenya voting bloc. In case he doesn’t make a fifth stab at the presidency, then Raila Odinga will support William Ruto with the former’s family members and intimate friends assured of a good number of slots in the would-be William Ruto’s administration. 

What if Raila is to support two of the three ‘musketeers’, either Kalonzo or Mudavadi? This certainly means that he has to finish off the Jubilee Party from within and totally emasculate it. But chances of this happening are extremely minimal as the “Three Nigerians” failed to act courageously when it mattered most – during the January 30^th swearing in – and Odinga may thus choose to support Ruto rather than the namby-pamby trio. 

Unsettled Questions & the Future

Will the embers of the Third Liberation flicker out since ODM’s cooperation with the Jubilee Party has rendered the National Resistance Movement-Kenya headless? Raila Odinga was a key figure in the struggle and birth of the Republic’s Second Liberation, and he is on record affirming the unstoppable journey towards the Third Liberation. 

Revolutionary-minded and youthful personalities must now learn to chart their own path and break away from the shadow of the former Prime Minister. How feasible is this though? If only the young and progressive minded individuals believe in themselves.

Who will check the incompetency, malaise, excesses and maladministration of the Uhuru Kenyatta administration? In the last five years, Raila Odinga effectively checked the wrongs committed by the Jubilee administration, unraveling one scandal after the other. 

With the new found camaraderie, just who will stand up and criticize the Jubilee administration for its missteps and mistakes? The three ‘musketeers’ are not equal to task neither are the other 2017 presidential candidates. 

What happens to the fight for electoral justice? NASA’s push for far-reaching electoral reforms has hit a snag. As a matter of fact, NASA is primarily dead with its death awaiting the mortician’s mega proclamation. 

Going forward, the youthful and reform-minded Kenyans must reflect and take the responsibility of liberating the Republic of Kenya from the old order. A good number of young Kenyans are already compromised and corrupted by the system, but the struggle for liberation shouldn’t wane neither should it be expected that the ‘Kenya We Want’ will dawn any time soon. It is a long struggle. 

For Raila Odinga, his political career is in its sunset years yet many people still look up to him for leadership. He has done a lot for the country but changing tact and deciding to dine with the corrupt and rogue Jubilee regime is an act of political immorality.

Joining hands with the Jubilee administration can only be acknowledged if social, economic and political injustices will be effectively addressed through proper implementation of the Republic’s Constitution. 

The new found camaraderie is a cosmetic and superficial move towards realizing national unity as political interests will override the intended objectives.

Email the writer at sitatiwasilwa13@gmail.com

Why Kenya is Courting the Path of KANU's Dark Days

A file photo of all the four Kenyan presidents.
Image: Courtesy

 “History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce”. Those are the words uttered by one of the world’s outstanding intellectuals and ideologues, Karl Marx. A classical illustration of Marx’s sentiments cannot be found any further in the Western world other than in Kenya, a country that is suffocating under the yoke of corruption and negative ethnicity.

Under KANU, the Grand Old Party (GOP) of Kenya’s politics, plundering of public resources was the order of the day. In the forty years that the cockerel party graced the country’s politics, the oligarchies of Jomo Kenyatta and Daniel Moi had a dubious yet exceptional distinction of not just looting and fashioning tribalism but also curtailing political and personal freedom of their real and perceived enemies.

The repetition of history as a tragedy first took place after Daniel Moi ascended to the presidency with his not-so-clever yet golden philosophy of “following in the footsteps of Jomo Kenyatta”. In following the footsteps of Kenya’s first president, a well-known tribalist and corrupt personality, Moi perfected the art of personalizing the government and the country.

He did this by gagging the political activists, dissenting politicians and even the media. Moi’s word was law a twin semblance to Jomo Kenyatta’s administration. Kibaki’s presidency never overcame the ghosts of corruption and negative ethnicity but at least overshadowed his predecessor’s through remarkable growth of the economy.

The farcical repetition of history has taken place under the administration of Uhuru Kenyatta. In the four years as president, corruption is at its apogee with the plum positions in government being mostly given to members of the Agikuyu and Kalenjin communities, the major political constituencies of the Jubilee Party.

Additionally, it is on record that there have been attempts in the last four and a half years to curtail freedom of the media among other stupid acts of intimidating members of the opposition and other dissenting voices. In fact, it is under the presidency of Uhuru Kenyatta that there has been a re-birth of the nuisance of hosting political delegations at State House and the State Lodges akin to Jomo’s and Moi’s eras.

It isn’t a surprise at all bearing in mind that the old man from Baringo and the matriarch of Kenyatta’s family, Mama Ngina Kenyatta are the key behind-the-scenes advisors to Uhuru Kenyatta. Just like the older Kenyatta and Moi, these delegations have turned out to be political orchestras of parading broke political failures seeking to gain some financial windfall and party stalwarts being energized to exercise their sycophancy with a lot of fury.

Recent Happenings

Former president Daniel Moi, after enduring a series of frustrations by the dissenting voices, publicly stated that KANU will rule the country for 100 years. Likened to a giraffe by the doyen of opposition politics, Jaramogi Ajuma Oginga Odinga in his autobiography Not Yet Uhuru, Moi had indeed seen the country’s political future. In the Jubilee Party, I see the reincarnation of KANU famed for legendary corruption with a phenomenal honor of tribalism.

Legislation of the Security Amendment Act in 2015 and the Elections Amendment Act in 2016 without incorporating the participation of legislators from the minority side, illustrate the dead set approach adopted by the Jubilee administration. As a matter of fact, the final motions in the National Assembly to adopt the afore-mentioned laws were preceded by heavy deployment of the police officers.

Selective application and the hell bent interpretation of the law are rife under the era of the Jubilee administration. It is evidentially clear that members and proxies of the opposition who are deemed to have broken the law are treated in a demeaning manner than the surrogates of the Jubilee Party. There are two instances to demonstrate this antiquated political move.

First, peaceful demonstrations by supporters of the opposition are usually marred with violence with the police officers being responsible for instigating the chaos and confusion. This was the case after the announcement of the outcome of the annulled presidential election and most recently, during the short-lived anti-IEBC demonstrations. Protests by Jubilee supporters after the historic ruling by the Supreme Court were peaceful but the police appeared to be acting on instructions from above not to interfere with the fanfare and were even tempted to join the demonstrators in castigating the highest court on the land.

Secondly, the drama surrounding the arrest of Babu Owino, a sophomoric and perhaps an eternally intoxicated politician, following his foul remarks against the president offers some insights on the selective application of the law. Though I do not support Owino’s remarks, the capture and re-capture mechanism employed to ‘teach him a lesson’ should also have been equally used to tame the filthy and incorrigible hate monger, Moses Kuria.

Why does Moses Kuria propagate hate speech yet he seems not to be worried in fact, going to an extent of bragging that the authorities can’t apprehend him? Is it because he represents President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Gatundu South constituency in the National Assembly?

In a video clip doing rounds on social media, the functionally illiterate governor of Nairobi County Mike Sonko, is heard to be uttering obscenities directed at Babu Owino with no action being taken against the former. Double standards by the authorities must fall!

Denigrating attacks against the Supreme Court and the Judiciary, as outlined in a recent article, are reminiscent of the politically warped and perilous thinking during KANU’s regime. We have outlived the era where the Judiciary was an extension of an inept Executive but we are slowly drifting towards the dark past.

A stinking shame and revelation is the party dictatorship that the Jubilee Party seems to be fantasizing with. Still fuming with the majoritarian ruling by the Supreme Court, the threats by the President’s party to check on the powers of the Judiciary seem to be taking shape. The backward and notoriously dangerous legal attempt to allow for any judge of the Supreme Court to swear in the president has no place in modern day Kenya and it will be battled out using a two-pronged approach; through the courts and in the trenches.

Other proposals in the pipeline to amend the current election laws, as proposed by the Jubilee Party, constitute a political travesty. There is lack of proper moral understanding and standing in cementing the country’s democratic gains. Subverting the Constitution based on reckless and wretched short-termism is an exercise in futility.

Cheap thinking by the Executive prompted the withdrawal of the police officers assigned to provide security to former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka. The flippant and witless remarks by Fred Matiang’i, the Cabinet Secretary in charge of Interior Coordination, that the government will not restore the security of the two political bigwigs is outrageously ignorant and arrogant. This extraordinary ignorance and incredible arrogance is typical of the “Kanuism” ideology of yesteryears. The “Kanunization” of Kenya’s current political architecture is not only evil but also selfish. Creation of a police state is surely taking shape.

Police State & Third Liberation

With the establishment of a police state in the offing, the Constitution is set to be watered down through fatuous legislations and amendments as well as unconstitutional acts. Who wants to live in a country in which one’s activities are closely monitored by the state? Is Kenya turning into a ‘Museveni Republic’ or the dreaded days of the feared Special Branch effectively used by Daniel Moi? These acts of paranoia and dogma by those running the affairs of the state are an impediment to Kenya’s progress and eventual politico-economic prosperity.

Frustrations harbored by the oppressed may erupt into an uncontrolled spurt of mass action that will be the genesis of Kenya’s Third Liberation. In any case, the Third Liberation will be a political and historical juncture firmly informed by and founded on the negatives of political exclusivity, political excesses and negative ethnicity.

Occurrence of the Third Liberation will be a struggle against the cumulative ills of the past and present governments whose eventuality would involve hallmark changes to the Constitution with great focus on the total transformation of the electoral and political systems. Perhaps, the sweeping changes of the Third Liberation are needed to restore morals and sanity in the country’s political leadership.

The attempt to institutionalize a police state and a government that embraces the “Kanuism” ideology is totally unacceptable. For the politically upright and astute citizens this is a moment to jealously guard the country’s hard-fought political gains.

  

After the Grand Merger; What Are the Stakes & Possibilities?

The dissolution of the affiliate parties that made up the Jubilee coalition to form a single entity in the name of Jubilee Party of Kenya is undoubtedly a critical juncture in the country’s political history. What remains to be seen largely is if and how the newly formed party will be able to survive and thrive in the long-term. The survival of the new kid on the block is pegged on a number of factors and of course its formation might also politically emasculate the other parties which have positioned themselves as outright competitors for political power.

One of the pitfalls that the Jubilee Party needs to strategically circumvent is the sharing of the party positions. The sharing of the party positions on interim basis, as initially perceived, would be done in such a manner so as to accommodate at least all the parties that were dissolved en route to the grand merger. But word has it that the then officials of the now defunct Jubilee Alliance Party (JAP) are touted to take over the administration of the party secretariat on an interim basis. The probability that the Jubilee Party will conduct party elections before the forthcoming general election is very minimal and may not even happen because of the likelihood of the emergence of political faults and rifts within the party.

This implies that a well crafted road map is needed so as to accommodate the possible dissenting voices. But a point to ponder is if the former members of the smaller parties should be able to get an almost equal share of the party positions with the likes of the defunct United Republican Party (URP) and The National Alliance (TNA). This certainly cannot happen. So what is the probable leverage to counter this? My hunch is that the former members of the dissolved smaller parties will be promised lucrative positions in government in the event that President Kenyatta is re-elected. Therefore, as at now, the issue of sharing the party positions isn’t a Herculean task as such.

Another hurdle that lays ahead of Jubilee Party’s path to seamless political operations is the aspect of party primaries. Nominations have always been a thorn in the flesh of political parties in Kenya and how the President’s new party will deal with this particular challenge will largely determine its existence in the medium-term to the long-term. The foremost strategy that has been hatched to ward off this challenge is the intention of having the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) conduct the party nominations.

The perception that is shared among the party’s stalwarts and political faithful is that the conduction of the party’s primaries by the state’s electoral body guarantees transparency in the nomination process. But will this move be able to counter the machine politics within the party? Seeking for political favors from the party’s honchos will aggressively take place considering the fact that the nomination process is expected to be a battle of its own kind. The reality that certain candidates might be favored by the party’s ‘who and who’ cannot be dispensed whatsoever and hence how this weighty political matter will be handled is an absolute fundamental question.

The level of aggressiveness in terms of the machine politics will determine the rate of the pre-nominations turnover. In this case, the stakes are generally high for the party’s primaries and those who might not be in good terms with the high and mighty risk a bleak political future because this is a black and white matter that even the IEBC by overseeing the party’s nominations cannot control.

So, what is the possibility in view of this scenario? Defections might take place long before the end of the window stipulated by the respective piece of legislation. This may be a tricky affair for the Jubilee Party especially if the defectors appear to be very popular on the ground. In the event that such defectors win political seats, it would as well have worked against the party’s wish to have an unmatched majority in Parliament.

Heading towards the 2017 general election, the strategists of the Jubilee Party cannot ignore the fact that the presence of the Chama Cha Mashinani (CCM) and the Kenya African National Union (KANU) especially in the Rift Valley region portend a treacherous political path for the party. The possibility that KANU will collaborate with Isaac Ruto’s CCM is relatively high as the two seek to position themselves strategically as alternative political havens for the Rift Valley residents bearing in mind that URP has been dissolved. That whether KANU and CCM will give the Jubilee Party a run for its money or if the latter will totally enfeeble the two remains to be witnessed but from my perspective, it is still early to make definite conclusions on this issue.

What makes the political drift in the Rift region to be interesting is the Moi-Ruto (Deputy President) factor of just who owes who and what? On one hand DP Ruto claims that Gideon Moi should support him because he religiously supported Toroitich Moi. But a disclaimer on this political hot potato is the bitterness within the elderly Moi on how the Deputy President wrestled the kingpin status away from him as he had strategically groomed his son, Gideon Moi, to take over. Therefore, the Baringo Senator is charged with the mandate of re-claiming the status of the region’s kingpin from DP Ruto and this moment being the sunset years of the former second president, then the political battle might as well intensify.

The possibility that the Jubilee Party is on course to being Kenya’s largest political party is relatively high, basing though on the primary vagueness of the current state of affairs. However, to ensure that it delivers a political sucker punch to its competitors, the Jubilee Party has created a window for forming pre-election and post-election pacts and coalitions with other willing political parties. This really maximizes its chances of securing a majority in both Houses.

Ultimately, the vibrancy of the Jubilee Party is furtherly pegged on the organization of the political parties on the other side of the political divide. The organization of the opposition political parties will irrefutably determine and affect the modus operandi of the Jubilee party; a disjointed opposition will guarantee a not-so-difficult sail through for the Jubilee party whereas a properly oiled opposition will certainly create a vicious electoral battle.

Presciently, the Jubilee strategists are well prepared to counter Raila Odinga and largely CORD. Whether Odinga will vie for the presidency or not, his political moves cannot be ignored whatsoever.  So what if the much rumored ‘Super Alliance’ the possible coalition of the Orange party, Wiper, Ford Kenya, Amani National Congress and KANU takes shape? This would highly counter Jubilee’s moves especially when a partnership involving Gideon Moi plus either Kalonzo or Mudavadi is fronted for the presidency. However, at the moment, this is largely an expected scenario and perhaps a political illusion.

At the end of it all, the bottom line is whether the Jubilee Party will stand against the test of time and usher in a new political era as it has been envisaged, different from the other past junctures. Only time will tell.